西甲亚盘回测报告 2016-2026

一、全局汇总

亚盘 — 顺追 (Follow)

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	1472	54.1%	+85.91	+5.8%	32.88	186	100.0%
4	738	53.8%	+44.08	+6.0%	25.11	147	100.0%
5	369	54.1%	+22.36	+6.1%	19.72	142	100.0%
6	188	50.8%	+5.69	+3.0%	14.77	79	100.0%
7	89	53.0%	+7.06	+7.9%	13.09	43	100.0%
8	43	46.2%	-0.86	-2.0%	8.48	17	100.0%
9	17	56.2%	+2.67	+15.7%	3.50	5	100.0%

亚盘 — 反追 (Fade)

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	1472	45.9%	-149.57	-10.2%	165.49	1404	100.0%
4	738	46.2%	-74.78	-10.1%	82.56	699	100.0%
5	369	45.9%	-36.57	-9.9%	45.02	332	100.0%
6	188	49.2%	-12.32	-6.6%	20.63	174	100.0%
7	89	47.0%	-10.55	-11.9%	13.00	30	100.0%
8	43	53.8%	-0.88	-2.1%	5.36	16	100.0%
9	17	43.8%	-3.41	-20.1%	4.25	16	100.0%

二、跨赛季一览

亚盘顺追 — 跨赛季ROI

阈值	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	2020-21	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	全局
3	+3.9%	+14.9%	-1.5%	-15.0%	+11.4%	+6.4%	+13.9%	+13.2%	+11.6%	-5.7%	+5.8%
4	+0.9%	+12.5%	-2.6%	-27.7%	+7.2%	+3.3%	+7.3%	+12.7%	+24.1%	+2.1%	+6.0%
5	+1.6%	+18.1%	-15.2%	-60.5%	-3.9%	+9.8%	+4.8%	+16.9%	+32.2%	-8.0%	+6.1%
6	-7.8%	+20.1%	-19.4%	-66.7%	-14.4%	-11.8%	-12.5%	+15.9%	+28.0%	-14.2%	+3.0%
7	+38.0%	+24.4%	-1.0%	-50.0%	-50.8%	-58.4%	-15.7%	+8.4%	+43.8%	+4.0%	+7.9%
8	-100.0%	+13.9%	-75.0%	-50.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%	-48.8%	+2.0%	+36.8%	-25.0%	-2.0%
9	—	+9.0%	—	—	—	—	-100.0%	-50.0%	+49.3%	—	+15.7%

亚盘反追 — 跨赛季ROI

阈值	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	2020-21	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	全局
3	-8.6%	-18.7%	-2.6%	+11.7%	-15.1%	-11.1%	-18.6%	-18.6%	-15.8%	+0.9%	-10.2%
4	-5.9%	-16.5%	+0.1%	+25.1%	-9.9%	-8.5%	-11.8%	-18.3%	-27.9%	-8.1%	-10.1%
5	-5.7%	-21.7%	+12.9%	+57.4%	+1.6%	-14.4%	-9.0%	-21.6%	-36.4%	+2.2%	-9.9%
6	+4.5%	-23.3%	+17.2%	+64.5%	+15.2%	+7.6%	+8.0%	-21.4%	-31.8%	+8.6%	-6.6%
7	-38.0%	-26.1%	-0.7%	+48.0%	+48.0%	+52.0%	+10.1%	-12.8%	-48.6%	-14.8%	-11.9%
8	+86.0%	-16.1%	+73.3%	+48.0%	+83.0%	+92.0%	+48.5%	-3.3%	-43.6%	+19.5%	-2.1%
9	—	-9.8%	—	—	—	—	+103.0%	+46.0%	-58.9%	—	-20.1%

亚盘顺追 — 跨赛季注数

阈值	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	2020-21	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	合计
3	148	192	155	129	136	118	142	141	170	141	1472
4	71	113	74	50	69	60	78	72	91	60	738
5	32	65	35	15	34	31	40	37	52	28	369
6	13	41	14	3	16	17	20	20	31	13	188
7	3	25	5	1	6	7	9	10	18	5	89
8	1	15	2	1	1	1	4	4	12	2	43
9	—	8	—	—	—	—	1	1	7	—	17

三、按赛季详细

2016-17 赛季 (2016-08-20 ~ 2017-05-22，共 760 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	148	52.1%	+5.79	+3.9%	10.21	49	100.0%
4	71	50.0%	+0.67	+0.9%	5.50	54	100.0%
5	32	51.6%	+0.51	+1.6%	7.11	15	100.0%
6	13	41.7%	-1.02	-7.8%	4.50	5	100.0%
7	3	66.7%	+1.14	+38.0%	1.00	1	100.0%
8	1	0.0%	-1.00	-100.0%	1.00	1	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	148	47.9%	-12.69	-8.6%	16.06	134	100.0%
4	71	50.0%	-4.18	-5.9%	9.03	55	100.0%
5	32	48.4%	-1.81	-5.7%	8.06	15	100.0%
6	13	58.3%	+0.58	+4.5%	4.14	7	100.0%
7	3	33.3%	-1.14	-38.0%	1.14	3	100.0%
8	1	100.0%	+0.86	+86.0%	0.00	0	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

2017-18 赛季 (2017-08-19 ~ 2018-05-21，共 760 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	192	59.4%	+28.65	+14.9%	4.80	12	100.0%
4	113	57.8%	+14.15	+12.5%	6.09	9	100.0%
5	65	61.9%	+11.80	+18.1%	4.62	16	100.0%
6	41	61.5%	+8.23	+20.1%	6.14	10	100.0%
7	25	62.5%	+6.10	+24.4%	3.77	8	100.0%
8	15	57.1%	+2.09	+13.9%	2.53	8	100.0%
9	8	50.0%	+0.72	+9.0%	2.00	3	100.0%

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	192	40.6%	-35.83	-18.7%	38.28	186	100.0%
4	113	42.2%	-18.59	-16.5%	23.99	95	100.0%
5	65	38.1%	-14.08	-21.7%	17.34	55	100.0%
6	41	38.5%	-9.53	-23.3%	11.21	18	100.0%
7	25	37.5%	-6.53	-26.1%	8.24	12	100.0%
8	15	42.9%	-2.41	-16.1%	4.66	7	100.0%
9	8	50.0%	-0.78	-9.8%	3.50	4	100.0%

2018-19 赛季 (2018-08-18 ~ 2019-05-19，共 760 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	155	50.0%	-2.35	-1.5%	7.25	16	100.0%
4	74	50.0%	-1.95	-2.6%	6.06	10	100.0%
5	35	42.4%	-5.33	-15.2%	7.15	18	100.0%
6	14	38.5%	-2.71	-19.4%	4.23	12	100.0%
7	5	50.0%	-0.05	-1.0%	1.00	1	100.0%
8	2	0.0%	-1.50	-75.0%	1.50	2	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	155	50.0%	-4.06	-2.6%	14.77	121	100.0%
4	74	50.0%	+0.05	+0.1%	6.74	54	100.0%
5	35	57.6%	+4.50	+12.9%	4.13	15	100.0%
6	14	61.5%	+2.42	+17.2%	2.00	2	100.0%
7	5	50.0%	-0.03	-0.7%	1.00	1	100.0%
8	2	100.0%	+1.47	+73.3%	0.00	0	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

2019-20 赛季 (2019-08-17 ~ 2020-07-20，共 760 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	129	41.5%	-19.41	-15.0%	20.26	128	100.0%
4	50	32.6%	-13.84	-27.7%	14.94	42	100.0%
5	15	14.3%	-9.07	-60.5%	9.70	13	100.0%
6	3	0.0%	-2.00	-66.7%	2.00	3	100.0%
7	1	0.0%	-0.50	-50.0%	0.50	1	100.0%
8	1	0.0%	-0.50	-50.0%	0.50	1	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	129	58.5%	+15.07	+11.7%	8.39	37	100.0%
4	50	67.4%	+12.57	+25.1%	3.00	4	100.0%
5	15	85.7%	+8.62	+57.4%	1.00	1	100.0%
6	3	100.0%	+1.94	+64.5%	0.00	0	100.0%
7	1	100.0%	+0.48	+48.0%	0.00	0	100.0%
8	1	100.0%	+0.48	+48.0%	0.00	0	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

2020-21 赛季 (2020-09-12 ~ 2021-05-24，共 760 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	136	57.7%	+15.55	+11.4%	7.54	37	100.0%
4	69	52.3%	+4.98	+7.2%	4.00	4	100.0%
5	34	47.1%	-1.31	-3.9%	5.50	6	100.0%
6	16	37.5%	-2.31	-14.4%	3.00	3	100.0%
7	6	16.7%	-3.05	-50.8%	3.05	6	100.0%
8	1	0.0%	-1.00	-100.0%	1.00	1	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	136	42.3%	-20.50	-15.1%	28.31	78	100.0%
4	69	47.7%	-6.85	-9.9%	12.59	50	100.0%
5	34	52.9%	+0.56	+1.6%	5.75	27	100.0%
6	16	62.5%	+2.43	+15.2%	2.17	4	100.0%
7	6	83.3%	+2.88	+48.0%	1.00	1	100.0%
8	1	100.0%	+0.83	+83.0%	0.00	0	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

2021-22 赛季 (2021-08-14 ~ 2022-05-23，共 760 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	118	52.7%	+7.55	+6.4%	6.52	19	100.0%
4	60	51.7%	+1.98	+3.3%	6.44	24	100.0%
5	31	54.8%	+3.04	+9.8%	2.96	5	100.0%
6	17	41.2%	-2.00	-11.8%	2.56	9	100.0%
7	7	14.3%	-4.09	-58.4%	4.09	7	100.0%
8	1	0.0%	-1.00	-100.0%	1.00	1	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	118	47.3%	-13.12	-11.1%	19.37	105	100.0%
4	60	48.3%	-5.12	-8.5%	10.35	16	100.0%
5	31	45.2%	-4.46	-14.4%	7.15	26	100.0%
6	17	58.8%	+1.30	+7.6%	2.00	2	100.0%
7	7	85.7%	+3.64	+52.0%	1.00	1	100.0%
8	1	100.0%	+0.92	+92.0%	0.00	0	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

2022-23 赛季 (2022-08-13 ~ 2023-06-05，共 760 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	142	60.0%	+19.78	+13.9%	8.35	26	100.0%
4	78	55.6%	+5.73	+7.3%	4.40	13	100.0%
5	40	54.1%	+1.93	+4.8%	4.01	11	100.0%
6	20	47.4%	-2.50	-12.5%	3.47	6	100.0%
7	9	44.4%	-1.41	-15.7%	2.21	4	100.0%
8	4	25.0%	-1.95	-48.8%	2.00	2	100.0%
9	1	0.0%	-1.00	-100.0%	1.00	1	100.0%

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	142	40.0%	-26.44	-18.6%	32.55	109	100.0%
4	78	44.4%	-9.24	-11.8%	14.41	62	100.0%
5	40	45.9%	-3.60	-9.0%	9.14	20	100.0%
6	20	52.6%	+1.59	+8.0%	3.74	10	100.0%
7	9	55.6%	+0.91	+10.1%	2.00	2	100.0%
8	4	75.0%	+1.94	+48.5%	1.00	1	100.0%
9	1	100.0%	+1.03	+103.0%	0.00	0	100.0%

2023-24 赛季 (2023-08-12 ~ 2024-05-27，共 760 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	141	59.1%	+18.55	+13.2%	9.54	33	100.0%
4	72	58.2%	+9.14	+12.7%	7.54	19	100.0%
5	37	58.8%	+6.26	+16.9%	4.22	7	100.0%
6	20	55.6%	+3.17	+15.9%	2.00	3	100.0%
7	10	50.0%	+0.84	+8.4%	2.00	2	100.0%
8	4	33.3%	+0.08	+2.0%	1.00	2	100.0%
9	1	0.0%	-0.50	-50.0%	0.50	1	100.0%

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	141	40.9%	-26.29	-18.6%	26.54	136	100.0%
4	72	41.8%	-13.17	-18.3%	13.66	71	100.0%
5	37	41.2%	-7.97	-21.6%	8.46	36	100.0%
6	20	44.4%	-4.27	-21.4%	5.63	17	100.0%
7	10	50.0%	-1.28	-12.8%	4.00	6	100.0%
8	4	66.7%	-0.13	-3.3%	1.00	2	100.0%
9	1	100.0%	+0.46	+46.0%	0.00	0	100.0%

2024-25 赛季 (2024-08-16 ~ 2025-05-26，共 760 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	170	59.1%	+19.79	+11.6%	14.63	32	100.0%
4	91	65.9%	+21.93	+24.1%	5.91	9	100.0%
5	52	70.8%	+16.77	+32.2%	2.00	2	100.0%
6	31	67.9%	+8.67	+28.0%	3.00	3	100.0%
7	18	76.5%	+7.88	+43.8%	1.00	1	100.0%
8	12	72.7%	+4.42	+36.8%	2.00	2	100.0%
9	7	83.3%	+3.45	+49.3%	1.00	1	100.0%

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	170	40.9%	-26.93	-15.8%	35.69	113	100.0%
4	91	34.1%	-25.39	-27.9%	26.56	88	100.0%
5	52	29.2%	-18.94	-36.4%	20.11	49	100.0%
6	31	32.1%	-9.87	-31.8%	11.69	25	100.0%
7	18	23.5%	-8.74	-48.6%	8.74	18	100.0%
8	12	27.3%	-5.23	-43.6%	5.23	12	100.0%
9	7	16.7%	-4.12	-58.9%	4.12	7	100.0%

2025-26 赛季 (2025-08-16 ~ 2026-05-25，共 760 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	141	46.6%	-7.98	-5.7%	14.79	59	100.0%
4	60	51.9%	+1.29	+2.1%	5.75	23	100.0%
5	28	46.2%	-2.23	-8.0%	4.50	6	100.0%
6	13	41.7%	-1.84	-14.2%	4.59	9	100.0%
7	5	50.0%	+0.20	+4.0%	1.00	2	100.0%
8	2	0.0%	-0.50	-25.0%	0.50	2	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	141	53.4%	+1.24	+0.9%	11.65	82	100.0%
4	60	48.1%	-4.86	-8.1%	8.69	36	100.0%
5	28	53.8%	+0.62	+2.2%	2.67	13	100.0%
6	13	58.3%	+1.12	+8.6%	3.00	4	100.0%
7	5	50.0%	-0.74	-14.8%	1.13	4	100.0%
8	2	100.0%	+0.39	+19.5%	0.00	0	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—