德甲亚盘回测报告 2016-2026

一、全局汇总

亚盘 — 顺追 (Follow)

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	1294	54.0%	+68.14	+5.3%	15.94	201	100.0%
4	653	55.8%	+56.57	+8.7%	11.31	33	100.0%
5	343	58.8%	+51.94	+15.1%	8.63	18	100.0%
6	188	58.8%	+29.46	+15.7%	11.29	35	100.0%
7	104	56.9%	+13.58	+13.1%	8.08	19	100.0%
8	58	55.4%	+5.51	+9.5%	4.04	9	100.0%
9	31	55.2%	+2.35	+7.6%	3.24	5	100.0%

亚盘 — 反追 (Fade)

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	1294	46.0%	-128.01	-9.9%	134.69	1275	100.0%
4	653	44.2%	-86.10	-13.2%	94.82	624	100.0%
5	343	41.2%	-66.66	-19.4%	73.09	328	100.0%
6	188	41.2%	-37.55	-20.0%	44.75	123	100.0%
7	104	43.1%	-18.23	-17.5%	22.89	72	100.0%
8	58	44.6%	-7.78	-13.4%	14.48	37	100.0%
9	31	44.8%	-3.46	-11.2%	7.61	23	100.0%

二、跨赛季一览

亚盘顺追 — 跨赛季ROI

阈值	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	2020-21	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	全局
3	+15.7%	-0.1%	+0.1%	-2.1%	+5.3%	+1.0%	+11.4%	+8.4%	+12.5%	-0.7%	+5.3%
4	+15.4%	+2.1%	+2.5%	+4.6%	+10.2%	+2.7%	+18.5%	+14.3%	+17.7%	-6.1%	+8.7%
5	+19.1%	-7.3%	+12.8%	-2.1%	+7.5%	+35.6%	+29.3%	+30.0%	+24.0%	-3.4%	+15.1%
6	+14.6%	-10.9%	-37.1%	+9.0%	-5.0%	+35.1%	+30.3%	+40.7%	+44.7%	+9.4%	+15.7%
7	+27.6%	-41.2%	-53.4%	+12.1%	-75.0%	+24.0%	+6.8%	+43.3%	+39.2%	-2.4%	+13.1%
8	-1.8%	-100.0%	-100.0%	+24.0%	—	+17.4%	+15.4%	+40.0%	+28.0%	-36.2%	+9.5%
9	-0.5%	—	—	-50.0%	—	-3.0%	+42.2%	+38.2%	+16.0%	-100.0%	+7.6%

亚盘反追 — 跨赛季ROI

阈值	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	2020-21	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	全局
3	-19.7%	-3.5%	-5.1%	-3.2%	-9.1%	-7.0%	-17.0%	-11.5%	-16.5%	-5.5%	-9.9%
4	-19.2%	-5.0%	-7.7%	-10.2%	-13.9%	-9.9%	-23.3%	-16.7%	-22.1%	+0.3%	-13.2%
5	-22.3%	+3.0%	-17.5%	-3.1%	-11.4%	-42.1%	-34.4%	-31.5%	-27.0%	-3.3%	-19.4%
6	-18.8%	+7.7%	+33.4%	-13.1%	+1.4%	-42.9%	-37.5%	-42.9%	-47.3%	-13.2%	-20.0%
7	-28.1%	+36.9%	+47.6%	-14.2%	+63.7%	-30.5%	-15.0%	-46.1%	-42.9%	-2.2%	-17.5%
8	+1.6%	+103.5%	+106.0%	-24.2%	—	-23.8%	-24.1%	-45.0%	-32.1%	+32.8%	-13.4%
9	+2.7%	—	—	+51.5%	—	-4.7%	-51.2%	-40.9%	-22.0%	+105.0%	-11.2%

亚盘顺追 — 跨赛季注数

阈值	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	2020-21	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	合计
3	128	136	142	133	117	122	131	139	142	104	1294
4	71	69	69	66	55	56	68	69	75	55	653
5	40	36	35	33	27	28	38	38	40	28	343
6	23	17	19	15	11	20	23	24	20	16	188
7	12	8	5	8	2	15	14	17	13	10	104
8	8	2	1	4	—	10	7	12	8	6	58
9	4	—	—	2	—	6	4	8	5	2	31

三、按赛季详细

2016-17 赛季 (2016-08-27 ~ 2017-05-20，共 612 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	128	60.8%	+20.04	+15.7%	8.57	22	100.0%
4	71	59.7%	+10.93	+15.4%	4.50	6	100.0%
5	40	62.2%	+7.62	+19.1%	2.28	13	100.0%
6	23	60.0%	+3.36	+14.6%	2.00	3	100.0%
7	12	66.7%	+3.31	+27.6%	2.00	2	100.0%
8	8	50.0%	-0.14	-1.8%	2.02	4	100.0%
9	4	50.0%	-0.02	-0.5%	1.00	1	100.0%

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	128	39.2%	-25.27	-19.7%	26.20	107	100.0%
4	71	40.3%	-13.61	-19.2%	17.20	67	100.0%
5	40	37.8%	-8.93	-22.3%	11.05	36	100.0%
6	23	40.0%	-4.32	-18.8%	5.88	21	100.0%
7	12	33.3%	-3.37	-28.1%	4.50	9	100.0%
8	8	50.0%	+0.13	+1.6%	3.00	3	100.0%
9	4	50.0%	+0.11	+2.7%	2.00	2	100.0%

2017-18 赛季 (2017-08-19 ~ 2018-05-12，共 612 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	136	51.5%	-0.18	-0.1%	6.56	50	100.0%
4	69	53.7%	+1.48	+2.1%	5.24	11	100.0%
5	36	48.6%	-2.62	-7.3%	4.00	4	100.0%
6	17	47.1%	-1.86	-10.9%	3.24	15	100.0%
7	8	25.0%	-3.30	-41.2%	4.19	7	100.0%
8	2	0.0%	-2.00	-100.0%	2.00	2	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	136	48.5%	-4.75	-3.5%	14.67	97	100.0%
4	69	46.3%	-3.46	-5.0%	10.62	54	100.0%
5	36	51.4%	+1.08	+3.0%	4.41	27	100.0%
6	17	52.9%	+1.31	+7.7%	2.06	4	100.0%
7	8	75.0%	+2.95	+36.9%	1.00	1	100.0%
8	2	100.0%	+2.07	+103.5%	0.00	0	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

2018-19 赛季 (2018-08-25 ~ 2019-05-18，共 612 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	142	50.4%	+0.18	+0.1%	9.53	45	100.0%
4	69	51.5%	+1.73	+2.5%	8.19	14	100.0%
5	35	54.3%	+4.49	+12.8%	2.44	5	100.0%
6	19	26.3%	-7.05	-37.1%	7.05	19	100.0%
7	5	20.0%	-2.67	-53.4%	2.67	5	100.0%
8	1	0.0%	-1.00	-100.0%	1.00	1	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	142	49.6%	-7.19	-5.1%	17.37	80	100.0%
4	69	48.5%	-5.33	-7.7%	16.19	45	100.0%
5	35	45.7%	-6.13	-17.5%	9.45	20	100.0%
6	19	73.7%	+6.34	+33.4%	2.69	6	100.0%
7	5	80.0%	+2.38	+47.6%	1.00	1	100.0%
8	1	100.0%	+1.06	+106.0%	0.00	0	100.0%
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

2019-20 赛季 (2019-08-17 ~ 2020-06-27，共 612 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	133	50.8%	-2.83	-2.1%	11.34	26	100.0%
4	66	54.0%	+3.02	+4.6%	7.96	20	100.0%
5	33	50.0%	-0.71	-2.1%	6.65	9	100.0%
6	15	57.1%	+1.34	+9.0%	1.00	1	100.0%
7	8	57.1%	+0.97	+12.1%	2.00	4	100.0%
8	4	66.7%	+0.96	+24.0%	1.00	1	100.0%
9	2	0.0%	-1.00	-50.0%	1.00	1	100.0%

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	133	49.2%	-4.28	-3.2%	15.35	89	100.0%
4	66	46.0%	-6.75	-10.2%	13.40	42	100.0%
5	33	50.0%	-1.02	-3.1%	8.91	22	100.0%
6	15	42.9%	-1.97	-13.1%	3.75	12	100.0%
7	8	42.9%	-1.14	-14.2%	2.00	2	100.0%
8	4	33.3%	-0.97	-24.2%	1.00	1	100.0%
9	2	100.0%	+1.03	+51.5%	0.00	0	100.0%

2020-21 赛季 (2020-09-19 ~ 2021-05-22，共 612 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	117	52.4%	+6.18	+5.3%	9.44	33	100.0%
4	55	56.2%	+5.59	+10.2%	4.55	28	100.0%
5	27	52.2%	+2.04	+7.5%	3.82	12	100.0%
6	11	37.5%	-0.54	-5.0%	2.50	4	100.0%
7	2	0.0%	-1.50	-75.0%	1.50	2	100.0%
8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	117	47.6%	-10.65	-9.1%	11.56	110	100.0%
4	55	43.8%	-7.64	-13.9%	7.64	55	100.0%
5	27	47.8%	-3.07	-11.4%	3.57	5	100.0%
6	11	62.5%	+0.16	+1.4%	1.56	3	100.0%
7	2	100.0%	+1.27	+63.7%	0.00	0	100.0%
8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

2021-22 赛季 (2021-08-14 ~ 2022-05-14，共 612 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	122	52.3%	+1.22	+1.0%	11.46	48	100.0%
4	56	52.9%	+1.49	+2.7%	5.50	8	100.0%
5	28	73.1%	+9.96	+35.6%	2.21	4	100.0%
6	20	73.7%	+7.03	+35.1%	1.21	3	100.0%
7	15	66.7%	+3.60	+24.0%	2.00	2	100.0%
8	10	60.0%	+1.74	+17.4%	1.10	5	100.0%
9	6	50.0%	-0.18	-3.0%	3.00	3	100.0%

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	122	47.7%	-8.58	-7.0%	14.79	51	100.0%
4	56	47.1%	-5.54	-9.9%	13.86	41	100.0%
5	28	26.9%	-11.80	-42.1%	13.44	24	100.0%
6	20	26.3%	-8.58	-42.9%	9.42	17	100.0%
7	15	33.3%	-4.58	-30.5%	6.42	13	100.0%
8	10	40.0%	-2.38	-23.8%	4.32	8	100.0%
9	6	50.0%	-0.28	-4.7%	3.00	3	100.0%

2022-23 赛季 (2022-08-06 ~ 2023-05-27，共 612 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	131	57.8%	+14.93	+11.4%	3.69	26	100.0%
4	68	60.9%	+12.55	+18.5%	3.87	15	100.0%
5	38	65.7%	+11.13	+29.3%	2.50	3	100.0%
6	23	63.6%	+6.96	+30.3%	1.50	2	100.0%
7	14	50.0%	+0.95	+6.8%	3.00	4	100.0%
8	7	57.1%	+1.08	+15.4%	2.00	2	100.0%
9	4	75.0%	+1.69	+42.2%	1.00	1	100.0%

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	131	42.2%	-22.24	-17.0%	24.69	128	100.0%
4	68	39.1%	-15.84	-23.3%	18.89	51	100.0%
5	38	34.3%	-13.07	-34.4%	14.54	31	100.0%
6	23	36.4%	-8.62	-37.5%	9.45	22	100.0%
7	14	50.0%	-2.10	-15.0%	5.53	9	100.0%
8	7	42.9%	-1.69	-24.1%	3.48	5	100.0%
9	4	25.0%	-2.05	-51.2%	3.00	3	100.0%

2023-24 赛季 (2023-08-19 ~ 2024-05-18，共 612 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	139	55.9%	+11.63	+8.4%	9.90	41	100.0%
4	69	59.4%	+9.83	+14.3%	7.17	17	100.0%
5	38	66.7%	+11.38	+30.0%	4.11	9	100.0%
6	24	73.9%	+9.77	+40.7%	2.66	5	100.0%
7	17	75.0%	+7.36	+43.3%	2.50	3	100.0%
8	12	72.7%	+4.80	+40.0%	1.50	2	100.0%
9	8	71.4%	+3.06	+38.2%	1.50	2	100.0%

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	139	44.1%	-15.98	-11.5%	22.22	47	100.0%
4	69	40.6%	-11.49	-16.7%	14.80	62	100.0%
5	38	33.3%	-11.96	-31.5%	13.99	33	100.0%
6	24	26.1%	-10.29	-42.9%	11.16	22	100.0%
7	17	25.0%	-7.84	-46.1%	8.71	15	100.0%
8	12	27.3%	-5.40	-45.0%	6.27	10	100.0%
9	8	28.6%	-3.27	-40.9%	3.50	4	100.0%

2024-25 赛季 (2024-08-24 ~ 2025-05-17，共 612 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	142	56.7%	+17.75	+12.5%	8.16	22	100.0%
4	75	59.4%	+13.29	+17.7%	4.00	5	100.0%
5	40	62.9%	+9.59	+24.0%	3.55	8	100.0%
6	20	73.7%	+8.94	+44.7%	2.50	3	100.0%
7	13	69.2%	+5.10	+39.2%	1.56	4	100.0%
8	8	62.5%	+2.24	+28.0%	1.50	2	100.0%
9	5	60.0%	+0.80	+16.0%	1.24	3	100.0%

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	142	43.3%	-23.41	-16.5%	26.44	131	100.0%
4	75	40.6%	-16.59	-22.1%	21.17	69	100.0%
5	40	37.1%	-10.81	-27.0%	11.64	39	100.0%
6	20	26.3%	-9.47	-47.3%	10.10	14	100.0%
7	13	30.8%	-5.58	-42.9%	6.10	10	100.0%
8	8	37.5%	-2.57	-32.1%	4.01	6	100.0%
9	5	40.0%	-1.10	-22.0%	2.01	4	100.0%

2025-26 赛季 (2025-08-23 ~ 2026-05-16，共 612 场)

亚盘 — 顺追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	104	51.0%	-0.77	-0.7%	8.03	34	100.0%
4	55	48.1%	-3.35	-6.1%	10.64	29	100.0%
5	28	50.0%	-0.95	-3.4%	6.28	12	100.0%
6	16	56.2%	+1.51	+9.4%	3.16	5	100.0%
7	10	50.0%	-0.24	-2.4%	2.00	2	100.0%
8	6	33.3%	-2.17	-36.2%	2.17	6	100.0%
9	2	0.0%	-2.00	-100.0%	2.00	2	100.0%

亚盘 — 反追

阈值	投注	胜率	盈亏	ROI	最大回撤	回撤注	Crown%
3	104	49.0%	-5.67	-5.5%	16.52	70	100.0%
4	55	51.9%	+0.16	+0.3%	10.47	24	100.0%
5	28	50.0%	-0.92	-3.3%	7.28	15	100.0%
6	16	43.8%	-2.11	-13.2%	6.05	10	100.0%
7	10	50.0%	-0.22	-2.2%	3.05	7	100.0%
8	6	66.7%	+1.97	+32.8%	1.00	1	100.0%
9	2	100.0%	+2.10	+105.0%	0.00	0	100.0%